By 2 Cents on August 15th, 2011 | Category: Investing |  Continuity gives us roots; change gives us branches, letting us stretch and grow and reach new heights.
~Pauline R. Kezer
My computer will be packed and we will probably be en route for stage one of the move by the time you read this. It’s unfortunate that this geographical move is coinciding with more historical economic and market moves. I wish I could follow it all a little more closely. Alas, life happens.
The good news is that if you’ve been reading BJ for the past year or so, you weren’t lulled into complacency by the 2009-2011 rally. To borrow a metaphor from David Rosenberg, you knew that the rally was a house of straw rather than bricks. Hopefully, you managed risk accordingly.
Besides the market, I’ve been short on time, sleep, and as a result, brain power. So I’ll use today’s [...]
Read on and enjoy … On the Move
By 2 Cents on June 16th, 2011 | Category: Economics |  Truth is after all a moving target Hairs to split, And pieces that don’t fit How can anybody be enlightened? Truth is after all so poorly lit.
~Neil Peart, Turn the Page
The following is an excerpt of an article that was originally published on Seeking Alpha as premium content. You can read the entire article there.
I read two fascinating articles this week that shed a little light on the opaque workings of our global financial system. One used recently declassified documents to show that foreign banks were the greatest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to quell the financial crisis. The second elucidated a recent BIS report that revealed the relative exposure of U.S. versus European financial institutions to a PIIGS default. The former article posited that the data provides the grounds for Ben Bernanke’s impeachment. The latter [...]
Read on and enjoy … Overexposed: European Debt, Systemic Risk, and Stealth Bailouts
By 2 Cents on May 30th, 2011 | Category: Investing |  The future is an opaque mirror. Anyone who tries to look into it sees nothing but the dim outlines of an old and worried face.
~Jim Bishop
Most people would agree that it’s pure folly to try to predict the future – especially that of the financial markets. And yet we don’t want to invest blindly either. We need to have at least some concept of where we’re at in the economic and market cycle, as well as the future prospects and valuation metrics for any company we may choose to buy.
Every investment decision is a bet on the direction of a given company, sector, or index. I know some passive investors out there don’t think they’re making market calls, but buying any financial instrument is a wager it will be worth more by the time we sell it. Otherwise, why buy it in the first place?
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Read on and enjoy … Will the S&P Fall to 400?
By 2 Cents on April 19th, 2011 | Category: Economics | Nothing is more desirable than to be released from an affliction, but nothing is more frightening than to be divested of a crutch.
~ James Baldwin
This is an excerpt of an article that was originally published on Seeking Alpha as premium content. You can read the entire article there.
There’s been no shortage of potentially market-moving news for investors to digest so far in 2011. From major geopolitical strife in the Middle East to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe to the multilevel Japanese catastrophe, markets have been remarkably resilient so far. Perhaps that’s because these types of events aren’t what’s driving the markets.
The only news items that seem to have any lasting impact on the stock and bond markets these days are those that pertain to monetary policy, particularly that of the US Federal Reserve. David Rosenberg recently pointed out that there has been [...]
Read on and enjoy … What Happens After QE2?
By 2 Cents on March 4th, 2011 | Category: Investing |  Because quantitative easing has affected all risk spreads, the withdrawal of nearly $1.5 trillion in annualized check writing may have dramatic consequences.
~ Bill Gross
The Ides of March will soon be upon us, but it’s not the 15th of this month that has PIMCO’s Bill Gross a little concerned. He’s more worried about June 30th, the date on which the Federal Reserve’s latest Quantitative Easing program is set to end. His latest Investment Outlook extends the concerns about U.S. Treasuries which he outlined in last month’s missive.
Gross, like many others, has been a critic of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing programs, wondering “whether [they] actually heal, as opposed to cover up, symptoms of an unhealthy economy.” Among a couple of other factors, its success, according to Gross, depends on “the willingness of creditors to believe in future real growth as a [...]
Read on and enjoy … End of QE2 Marks D-Day for the Markets: Bill Gross
By 2 Cents on February 14th, 2011 | Category: Investing |  One bright day in the middle of night two dead boys rose to fight. Back to back they faced each other, drew their swords and shot one another. A deaf policeman heard the noise, and saved the lives of the two dead boys. If you don’t believe this lie is true, ask the blind man, he saw it too.
~Author Unknown
Update: This article was chosen for the Best of Money Carnival #91 posted at Intelligent Speculator. Thanks!
Are you confused about inflation yet? Everywhere you turn some analysts are worrying about rising commodity prices while others, including Fed Chairman Bernanke, point to the tame core inflation rate. Back in August of 2010, it looked like a double dip recession was in the cards and we were worrying about deflation. Then the Fed threw the stock market a QE2 bone and Read on and enjoy … Wake Up and Smell the Inflation
By 2 Cents on February 7th, 2011 | Category: Investing |  [T]hose who live by numbers can also perish by them and it is a terrifying thing to have an adding machine write an epitaph, either way.
~George J.W. Goodman, The Money Game
This is an excerpt of an article that was originally published yesterday on Seeking Alpha as premium content. You can read the entire article there.
PIMCO’s Call to Arms
Is it just me or did Bill Gross just pull the pin on the bond vigilante grenade and lob it in the general direction of the Federal Reserve? I haven’t read any analysis of his recent investment outlook (Devil’s Bargain) that pointed this out directly, so maybe I’m off-base here. I’ll go over what I read and what I understood it to mean. I’m sure someone will be more than happy to correct me if I’m wrong.
It seems to me [...]
Read on and enjoy … PIMCO’s Battle Call to Bond Vigilantes
By 2 Cents on December 3rd, 2010 | Category: Economics |  Lucy Van Pelt: This time you can trust me. See? I have a signed document testifying that I won’t pull it away. Charlie Brown: It is signed. A signed document. I guess if you have a signed document in your possession, you can’t go wrong. Maybe this is the year I finally kick that football. [Charlie Brown runs to kick football, but Lucy pulls it away]
~ It’s the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown
Update: This article was included in the December 6, 2010 Best of Money Carnival at Mighty Bargain Hunter. It was also mentioned in the Carnival of Financial Planning #169 at The Skilled Investor. Thanks!
I’ve loved the Charles Schulz Peanuts comic strip since I was a kid. I’ve enjoyed the holiday classics for years with my own kids too. Now that they’re a little older, I try [...]
Read on and enjoy … Lucy and the Charlie Brown Market
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